Saturday, April 19, 2008

Sober analysis from Giora Eiland

There are four reasons why such final-status agreement is unfeasible in the foreseeable future.

1. The most an Israeli government can offer to the Palestinians and still survive politically is much less than the minimum that any Palestinian government can accept and survive politically. The gap between the sides is large and is growing with the passage of time, rather than the other way around.

2. ...When an agreement is signed, the assumption is that the other side intends to implement it and would be able to do so. This is not the reality when it comes to Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

The absence of Palestinian desire (to get a small and split state and view it as the end of the conflict) is the bothersome aspect. Let’s assume that a referendum was held among the Palestinians regarding the nature of the solution to the conflict, with two possible answers: First, two states to the two peoples on the basis of the Clinton plan. Second, no Palestinian state, but also no State of Israel, with the entire Land of Israel area being divided among Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. What would be the result of such imaginary referendum? I estimate that more than 50% would vote without hesitation for the second option. A Palestinian state was never the Palestinian ethos. The Palestinian ethos is based on other aspirations such as “justice,” “revenge,” recognition of their victimization, etc.

3. Hamas. It will continue to be strong enough to torpedo any diplomatic agreement that puts an end to the conflict.

4. Even if a miracle happens and a final-status agreement is reached, and even if it is successfully implemented, it will not achieve stability, but rather, the opposite. There is no chance that the small, split, and resource-poor Palestinian state will constitute the homeland of satisfied people.

For a possible solution, read the entire article. Seems far fetched but Eiland says it is conceivable. Yes, and pigs might fly...

Giora Eiland is a general in the Israel Army reserves and former security adviser to prime ministers Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert,


At 1:22 PM EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great stuff Noga.

I think the best answer is for Egypt to resume territorial control over Gaza and Jordan over a good portion of the West Bank.

Barring that. Israel will have to colonize the West Bank and ethnically cleanse it, shoving Palestinians out into Jordan. This will be a long run strategy.


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